By STEPHEN KAPAMBWE –

WHEN President Edgar Lungu assented to the amended Constitution recently, political analyst Chris Zumani Zimba said the changes in the supreme law of the land were “a game changer” in the way politics is done.
This change is largely because of new provisions in the Constitution that would impact the way politics is organised and managed in the country.
Firstly, Mr Zimba, who is also a historian, noted that the assenting to the Constitution by President Lungu had by itself changed politics because for a long time, all political parties had been saying they would pass a “people-driven constitution” once voted for.
“This puts to rest the issue of giving the country a people-driven constitution which all the political parties have been promising the Zambian people.
“So now the Constitution has been assented to, those campaigning to be voted for this year will have to promise other things because the Constitution is now here,” he said.
He appealed to political parties to be innovative and find other issues that they could use to convince the electorate to vote for them.
Secondly, now that the matter of the Constitution would not be a campaign issue in the upcoming general elections, political parties have to contend with changes in the law.
Notable among the changes are the clauses that, more or less, represent a shift in the political paradigm.
Of the new clauses is the 50+1 provision which might even push some smaller political parties into extinction as they might no longer be viable as single entities. Such parties might have to partner with or be assimilated by bigger political parties as the status quo shifts.
Prior to the assenting of the amended Constitution, Zambia had been using the “first-past-the-post” or “winner-takes-all” system to elect a republican president. The winning candidate in these elections was determined on the basis of a simple majority vote.
This meant that whoever could manage to meet the conditions required to be nominated as a presidential candidate in a presidential election could form a political party and vie for the presidency.
That led to a proliferation of political parties. For example, the January 20, 2015, presidential election which ushered President Lungu into office had 11 candidates contesting the presidency, and this has been the trend, especially after 1991 when former President Kenneth Kaunda re-introduced plural politics.
Ten presidential candidates contested the presidential election that ushered the Patriotic Front (PF) into power in 2011, while in 2008, the snap-election which was called to replace late President Levy Mwanawsa drew four contestants.
Five candidates ran for the presidency in 2006 while in 2001, the presidential election attracted 11 contestants.
But now that the winning candidate requires to get at over 50 per cent of the votes cast, political parties have realised that a multiplicity of parties will disadvantage any party that is interested in winning the presidential election.
Opposition MMD leader Nevers Mumba even believes that no single political party in the country has the capacity to get 50 per cent plus one of the votes to secure the presidency.
“All options at this time are on the table arising from the constitutional changes that have been made and the inclusion of a number of clauses that the Zambians have been looking for over the years.
“It calls for every political party to introspect, to re-strategise and ensure that they become relevant to the process,” Dr Mumba said.
The leader of the former ruling party said although it was too early, it was clear that the enactment of the Constitution had changed politics in the country.
“We see that none of the political parties that are participating are going to hit that threshold… There would be need for political parties to talk among themselves to ensure that that 50+1 threshold is attained,” he said.
Opposition UPND equally disclosed that it is holding consultative meetings with would-be alliance members from other opposition political parties.
UPND deputy spokesperson Edwin Lifwekelo told journalists in Lusaka recently that his party was willing to work with parties with which it shared similar aspirations.
“There are consultations going on with would-be alliance members, but I cannot reveal their names as it is too early to do this,” he said.
A few weeks ago, UPND president Hakainde Hichilema announced his party’s openness to form an alliance with any political party that had the same ambitions and aspirations as the UPND.
Prior to the signing of the amended Constitution, few of the large political parties seemed open to the idea of alliances which in the past had proved generally impractical.
However, opposition Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) and the Fourth Revolution Party (FRP) feel they have what it takes to secure the presidency on their own.
FDD spokesperson Antonio Mwanza said political parties opting to form alliances have no confidence of winning the elections.
“We just want to put it on record that FDD is going in the 2016 general elections as a single, independent political party. We are very confident that we are doing enough on the ground; our programmes are resonating with the people and they would give us the vote come August 11, 2016,” he said.
He advised political parties forming alliances not to do it for the sake of gaining power but strive to serve the people. He said alliances should be made on the principle of trust, respect and having a clear programme for the people of Zambia.
“You do not just form alliances for the sake of removing one party from government; you form alliances to change the lives of the people of Zambia,” he said.
FRP leader Eric Chanda said his party had enough support on the grassroots and it was not scared of the 50+1 threshold.
Besides the 50+1 clause, other provisions will make it expensive for a number of political parties to sponsor a presidential candidate.
The qualification for a presidential candidate to be accompanied by 1,000 supporters to present nomination would require considerable financial muscle even for large political parties.
Many candidates found it relatively easy to go with 100 party supporters under the previous constitution.
However, the amended Constitution requires that a presidential candidate be accompanied by 1,000 supporters of whom 100 should be from each of the country’s 10 provinces.
This could, in some cases, be equivalent to the cost of hosting a mini-party convention, and it is yet to be seen how many parties will marshal the resources required to perform this feat.
This could yet be another reason why political parties might opt for alliances.
In addition to this, the candidates contesting parliamentary seats now require a minimum Grade 12 certificate or its equivalent, among other requirements.
A considerable number of previous parliamentary candidates rose to prominence in their political parties because of loyalty and diligence for which they might win adoption to run for parliament.
But now, every parliamentary candidate requires the minimum educational qualification of Grade 12.
This limits those with lower qualifications.
Another factor that would influence change on the political scene is the running mate clause in the amended Constitution.
“The new clause simply means that from now onwards, political parties are going to choose a vice-president in waiting before elections.
“The past experience has been that presidential candidates could contest presidential elections without having a substantive vice-president already chosen,” Mr Zimba said.
The era of a presidential candidate running alone and appointing the vice-president upon assumption of power is over.
Now, presidential candidates will have to take more care and time in coming up with a suitable running mate who would not only tip the scales in favour of the presidential candidate, but also make a suitable republican vice-president.
These are just some of the factors influencing politics in the country.