By VENARCIOUS MWANSA –

ELECTION day finally came and, although in reality there was no difference between January 20 and any other day, this particular day produced mixed reactions.
Zambian voters picked their Republican president to fill the void left by President Michael Sata, who died in a London hospital on October 28, 2014.
However, just before all votes had been counted and the incoming president was officially announced by the Electoral Commission of Zambia, leader of the United Party for National Development (UPND) Hakainde Hichilema reportedly stormed the Mulungushi International Conference Centre where he declared himself the winner.
This was in defiance of advice by the ECZ chairperson Ireen Mambilima against any premature declarations.
UPND cadres and other supporters were apparently equally in a celebratory mood, all this only after a handful of results had been announced, and the UPND was trailing the Patriotic Front (PF) candidate Edgar Lungu, at some point by more than 65,000 votes.
The announcement of a few election results did not necessarily send a shower of sparks in the UPND camp as the mindset of this party’s leaders was made immediately campaigns started.
This was reinforced by squabbles in the two major parties, the ruling PF and the former ruling MMD, some of whose members of Parliament had effectively crossed the floor and were campaigning for Mr Hichilema.
With the UPND the only party free from any acrimonious disputes, Mr Hichilema and his supporters felt certain victory in the Tuesday, January 20, 2015 election was theirs, come-what-may.
This feeling was further reinforced by opinion polls, most of which, if not all, published by some privately-owned media organisations, including the not-so-credible social media, especially the UPND-aligned Watchdog, consistently put HH far ahead of Mr Lungu, “his closest rival.”
There is surely nothing wrong with conducting an opinion poll, which is a survey of people’s views from a particular sample, and is usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions which are then extrapolated in general terms.
In countries where opinion polls are objectively and efficiently conducted, these are done through telecommunications or in person-to-person verbal contact and ballot, among other varying methods and techniques.
Experts processing poll results admit that there is usually a possibility of error. In most areas, however, poll results are widely accepted because results are always closer to prediction.
Not so with most opinion polls so far conducted in Zambia. For instance in 2011, two gentlemen from the University of Zambia conducted poll(s) and predicted MMD’s outright victory over the PF, by a wide margin that is. Yet after the general elections, the results showed the exact opposite.
The two learned gentlemen have since never attempted any similar survey.
The opinion polls prior to this year’s election, coupled with the squabbles that rocked the PF and MMD, as well as so many political heavyweights, including a record MMD/PF MPs that jumped on the UPND bandwagon, were the reasons for some people’s optimism that HH was this time around carrying the day.
When the opposite was the case, many of these people could not believe the turn of events with those opposition leaders who had earlier vowed to quit politics should the PF candidate emerge victorious failing to do so, perhaps believing the ECZ was yet to call another briefing during which their leader would be announced the winner.
However, their party president HH, together with some of his supporters cried foul, charging that they were robbed of victory. It is surprising how it is so difficult for some people to accept reality!