By CHATULA KANGALI –
THERE is need for Zambia to focus on increasing investment in alternative sources of power generation which are resilient to climate change.
The effects of climate change are being felt by everyone as rainfall has reduced due to the El Nino.
The El Nino-induced drought has caused a significant impact on the region’s rainfall pattern.
Zambia in particular, has experienced a severe decline in rainfall, with the Zambezi and Kafue River basins, which are the major water catchment for hydropower generation dams in Zambia, being significantly affected.
According to the Ministry of Energy, Kariba North Bank power plant depends on water from the Kariba Dam reservoir for its generation.
For this year, only eight billion cubic metres has been allocated to Zambia for power generation due to the forecasted low rainfall pattern.
This means that the power plant can only generate up to 214 megawatts (MWs) of power out of an installed generation capacity of 1080 MW.
There has also been a marked reduction in the level of rainfall received on the Kafue River Basin in the 2023-2024 rainy season.
According to the data at gauging point, water inflows have decreased by 50 per cent compared to the 2022-2023 rainy season as well as to other Long Term Mean flows.
This has resulted in the authorities rationing power supply to reserve the little that has remained for the country to remain productive.
On March 11 this year, Zesco announced an eight-hour load-shedding countrywide.
Over the years, the country has highly depended on hydro to generate power because it is cheap and the country has abundant water sources.
However, with climate change, the country cannot continue to depend on it for sustainable electricity generation.
Investing in energy generation that is resilient to climate change can help the country produce more power even at the time it is experiencing El Nino.
According to the Energy Regulation Board (ERB) 2023 midyear report, Zambia produces 3812.07 MWs of which 83 per cent is hydropower and 17 per cent was from other sources like solar, heavy fuel and diesel.
In the baseline year of 2020, peak electricity demand was at 2,456 MWs mainly driven by mining at 36 per cent, residential at 31 per cent and commercial and industrial sectors at 10 per cent.
The 2023 Integrated Resource Management Plan (IRP) for the power sector in Zambia projected peak demand scenario for 2050 to be 11,031
MWs.
So this increased demand in electricity requires increased investment in power generation that adapts to climate change.
IRP suggests that the most marked impacts on hydropower generation in Zambia require priority attention to ensure a stable supply of generation capacity under climate change conditions.
The IRP recommends a number of actions that should be considered in hydropower design in the future.
These include both spatial diversification away from the most affected catchment areas as well as increased input from other renewable energy sources that are decoupled from hydrological parameters.
Further individual installations should be assessed to determine if negative impacts from evaporation can be reduced
The IRP suggests a framework for assessing climate risk in electricity infrastructure for both new and existing facilities.
That would ensure that climate-smart decision making is mainstreaming and that site-specific risks can be identified and incorporated into the design and planning process.
Energy Minister Peter Kapala agrees that climate change is real and is affecting power generation.
Mr Kapala is calling on engineering professionals to come on board in designing and managing systems and technology to beat climate change.
“This electricity crisis has shown a gap; we now have to make sure that we have infrastructure that adapts to climate change. As a government, we cannot solve this challenge alone but with all stakeholders,” he says.
Mr Kapala notes that with more than 3,000 hours of sunshine per year, the country has capacity to generate electricity from solar.
He says the government has set a target to produce 5,000 MW of power from renewable energy sources among them solar.
Mr Kapala says Ultra Green is constructing a $300-million solar power plant in Serenje, which will have a generation capacity of 50 MW of electricity.
The government, through ZESCO, is developing a 100 MW Solar PV power plant in Kabwe.
“The project is underway with a scheduled duration of 10 months, aiming for completion and commissioning by the end of the year.
“Already, the government is contributing 88 MWs through the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) to the national grid through its two co-owned solar power plants located in the Lusaka South Multi-Facility Economic Zone — Bangweulu Power Company and Ngonye Power Company,” he says.
Mr Kapala says Upepo Energy is also expected to start generating 150 MW from solar, wind and storage hybrid power plants.
He says the project will commence as soon as it signs a power purchase agreement with CEC.
The Solar Industry Association of Zambia (SIAZ) says the local industrial players have started making enquiries from both the European and Chinese markets for the procurement of alternative energy equipment.
SIAZ president Matanda Mwewa says the industry has been in full gear to see how they can ‘fill the void’ by starting enquiries on alternative energy products.
“Since President Hakainde Hichilema announced measures to tackle the effects of the dry spell, we have been getting orders and making enquiries from the European and Chinese market to bring in alternative energy equipment,” Mr Mwewa says.
He observes that the industry sees power rationing as an advantage for the players to get business, adding that given the improved business environment in the country, the industry is ready to satisfy the market.
He says with the crop affected by the dry spell, solar powered irrigation facilities will be in high demand, hence the need for the industry to strategise and gain business.
Mr Mwewa says it was time the country moved from heavy dependency on hydropower by embracing alternative energy sources like solar and wind among others.
Climate change is here to stay and investment in alternative sources of energy such as solar and winds that are resilient to climate change are, indeed, imperative.