By Kennedy Mupeseni –

THE mild drought characterised the 2021/2022 rain season, late fertiliser distribution and the lucrative soya beans in the last year’s crop marketing season can be blamed for the expected reduction in maize production this year.
Data from the crop forecasting survey for the 2021/2022 agricultural season and the food security status for the 2022/2023 marketing season show that the production of maize is expected to decrease by 25.24 per cent from 3,620,244 tonnes to 2,706,243 tonnes recorded in the 2020/2021 season.
The report also states that the production of cassava, millet, sorghum and rice, and Irish potatoes, is also expected to decline.
Agriculture Minister Reuben Phiri attributes the decline in maize production to a reduction in the area planted from 1,687,929 hectares last season to 1,507,441 hectares this season.
This is coupled with a reduction in the yields from 2.14 tonnes per hectare in the last season to 1.80 tonnes per hectare this season.
The total estimated production as the report reviews will be 2,706,243 tonnes of maize and as usual the small and medium scale farming households are expected to contribute 96 per cent while the large-scale farmers are projected to contribute four per cent.
Luckily the country is likely to be shielded from ‘hunger’ because as of May 1, 2022, the total carryover stocks held by farmers, millers, grain traders and the Food Reserve Agency was 1,503,432 tonnes.
So given the estimated production of 2,706,243 tonnes of maize and the carryover stocks, the total available maize supply in the 2022/2023 agricultural marketing season will be 4,209,675 tonnes against the country’s population which is estimated at 19.2 million.
The estimated national requirement for maize to meet consumption demand is estimated at 3,004,763 tonnes.
In this case, the country is expected to have a surplus of 1,204,912 tonnes of maize.
From the foregoing, Mr Phiri has maintained the Government’s stance of opening borders’ policy for exports in line with regional and international trade protocols.
On the contrary, soya bean production this season is expected to increase to 475,353 tonnes from last year’s 411,115 tonnes.
This is an increase in production of 15.63 per cent from what was recorded in the 2020/2021 farming season.
The increase is attributed to the expansion of the area under cultivation of about 29.6 per cent from the previous season.
Hence ,most of the farmers shunned growing maize owing to high prices of the energy crop which saw a jump from about K4.50 per kilogramme to as high as K10 per kg as per Food Reserve Agency (FRA) floor price.
The Zambia Consumer Association (ZACA) has urged the government to buy more than 1.5 million tonnes of maize in this year’s crop marketing season to avoid mealie meal shortages due to an anticipated drop in maize production in the 2021/2022 farming season.
ZACA executive secretary Juba Sakala says the association is concerned with the drop in maize production as it was a threat to food security as it was not known how long it would last.
Mr Sakala says the Government should this year buy the whole maize and not restrict it to private buyers who were likely to get more.
He says the Government should at least buy more than 1.5 tonnes in order to guarantee food security in the country.
“The drop in maize production which is translating into 25 per cent is also a major concern to us consumers because we don’t know how long this stock will last us therefore we urge the Government to consider buying the whole maize this year and not restrict it to the private sector.
“At least they should go beyond 1.5 tonnes just to guarantee food security,” he says.
But economist Chibamba Kanyama says the 25 per cent decline in maize production to 2.7 million tonnes this year from 3.6 million tonnes last year is too marginal to cause food related inflation and food shortages.
Mr Kanyama says the country is still insulated from food shortages because of the carryover maize stock.
He says although the figure is not looking good since it is declining, the drop in production will not cause food inflation which he says weigh heavily on the rate of inflation.
“The issue is that the current momentum of inflation deceleration won’t be faster as it could have even recorded an increase, in fact we can even achieve single digit sooner than later,” Mr Kanyama says.
He only sees the likely negative impact of the decline in maize production on the budget given that there will be a shortfall of the commodity in some parts of the country.
“Other areas experienced droughts and heavy rainfall and could not produce, so the Government will have to distribute free maize, thereby spending money,” Mr Kanyama says.
As for Zanaco head of agriculture banking Cheyo Mwenechanya, the projected figure when combined carry over stock provides an opportunity to earn foreign exchange through exportation of maize whose current regional price is $478 per tonne.
Mr Mwenyechanya maintains that the country is food secure and encouraged the Government to stick to its planned exports of maize.
“The drop is marginal and looking at the monthly consumption levels of between 100,000 and 120,000 tonnes for industrial and domestic, there is an opportunity to export ,especially that regional prices are favourable,” he says.
To boost maize production and lure back those running away from growing the staple crop after being attracted to more commercially viable crops like soybeans, Stock Feed Importers Association president Michelo Chikange urges the Government to incentivise the growing of maize.
“The decline may not have a significant effect on the economy since we have carry-over stocks from the previous season, but how about the coming season, because one of the causing factors is reduced planted area,” Mr Chikange says.
He says in this case, farmers should be encouraged to grow more maize and there is also a need for the re-introduction of winter maize growing.
It is expected the FRA would prepare itself to mop up more maize to enhance the country’s food strategic reserve and avoid causing food inflation at a time when most households are struggling to make ends meet.