TODAY, the forum focuses on some elements of Zambia’s economic performance in 2021 and measures up that to some of this year’s projections.
The article looks at the country’s performance in international trade and zeroes in to copper export, inflation and a few other related issues.
According to the Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats), in 2021, the country exported 903,400 tonnes of refined copper from January to December as compared to the 931,000 tonnes exported in the same period in 2020.
That represents a three-per cent decrease between the two years.
Without comprehensively delving the factors which could have caused the reduction in the export volume, the effects of COVID-19 pandemic could not be ruled out.
The copper export figure for the country which is aspiring to regain its status as Africa’s largest copper producers by increasing production to three million tonnes, in the medium-term, is not impressive.
In 2020 the country recorded what was termed as an all-time-high copper production of 882,061 tonnes which translated into 10-per cent increase on 2019’s output of 796,430 tonnes.
As locally superlative as it was, the production figure fell short of the perennial target of one-million tonnes and could not help the country to supplant its northerly neighbour, the Democratic Republic of Congo from Africa’s first slot.
Historically, Zambia has been Africa’s largest copper producer for a long time until the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) started marshalling a ferocious challenge.
For instance, by September 2020, the DRC had posted production of about 1.2 million tonnes for the year.
Indeed, DRC copper production rose by 13.7 per cent year-on-year to 1.186 million tonnes for the period, January-to-September 2020, the DRC central bank data shows.
In 2013, for the first time, the DRC surpassed Zambia to become Africa’s leading copper producer, with an output of 925 000 tonnes.
That feat by Zambia’s neighbour was against the backdrop that barely 10 years before that the country was producing as low as 70 000 tonnes of copper per year.
It remains to be seen whether Zambia’s three million tonnes copper production target would help buoyed the investors to produce more and help beat DRC’s figures.
However, from the refined copper export, which is still the country’s main foreign exchange earner, Zambia received reduced earnings for December 2021 as expected.
The export earnings from refined copper decreased by 9.6 per cent to K13.3 billion from K14.7 billion in November 2021.
Copper export volumes in the period decreased by 6.3 per cent to 81,300 tonnes from 86, 800 tonnes in November 2021.
Generally, the cumulative total trade for the period January to December 2021 was K359.4 billion as compared to the K242.3 billion posted in 2020 for the same period, representing a 48.3-per cent rise.
Similarly, the total value of exports through all modes of transport for the period January to December 2021 was K219.7 billion with the road transport accounting for more than 55 per cent at K122.4 billion.
ZamStats states that the rail transport was second at K18.3 billion (8.3 percent) and air transport was third accounting at K4.1 billion (1.9 per cent).
Other modes of transport accounted for K75 billion (34.1 per cent).
In terms of volume, the total volume of exports for the period January to December 2021 was 7.7 million tonnes with the road transport accounting for 70.4 per cent.
Generally for the year, the country is estimated to have recorded a trade surplus of K80 billion after exporting goods and services valued at 213.9 billion as compared to the imports valued at 139.7 billion.
In terms of the major export destination in December 2021, Switzerland continued accounting for a lion’s share of 44.3 percent of the total export earnings with copper anodes for electrolytic refining accounting as the main export product at 66.9 per cent.
China was the second main destination of Zambia’s exports accounting for 17.1 per cent of the total export earnings with copper anodes for electrolytic refining as the major export product accounting for 79.4 per cent of total export earnings.
Singapore was the third main export destination accounting for 12.7 per cent of the total export earnings while the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo was the fourth main export destination accounting for 11.6 per cent of the total export earnings.
As usual South Africa was the fifth main export destination accounting for 2.4 per cent of the total export earnings and the five countries collectively accounted for 88.1 per cent of Zambia’s total export earnings in December, 2021
Coming to inflation, the rate seems to be on its way to meet the 2022 target of single-digit by the end of the year and to the band of six-to-eight per cent over the mid-term period.
The annual inflation opened the year 2022 with a decrease to 15.1 per cent from 16.4 per cent recorded in December 2021.
Generally, that means that on average basis, the prices of goods and services increased by 15.1 per cent between January 2021 and January 2022.
According to the ZamStats the slowdown in annual inflation was mainly attributed to favourable price movements in food items.
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