By BRIAN HATYOKA – A DROUGHT is defined as an event of prolonged shortage in the water supply, whether atmospheric, surface or ground water.
The situation has an adverse impact on different sectors, such as agriculture, livestock, energy and tourism, among others.
This impact may be local, and only affect those in the drought-stricken area.
Or it may be widespread and impact people living outside the drought affected area.
In the agricultural industry, for instance, dry conditions and lack of rain can damage or kill crops and negatively impact on farmers’ income.
The primary direct economic impact of a drought in the agricultural sector is crop failure and pasture loss.
Crop or livestock loss, as a result of a drought, impacts consumers through increased food and meat prices.
Lately, several parts of Zambia have been experiencing dry spells, with some stakeholders fearing that the situation might lead to decreased agricultural production next year.
The Ministry of Green Economy and Environment recently projected that the dry spells would persist for 10 days and affect many parts of the country.
The poor rainfall conditions are attributed to an atmospheric wind circulation pattern covering the country and the sub- region, which is suppressing cloud development and rainfall activities, resulting in mostly clear skies with high temperatures.
In this regard, the ministry advised farmers not to plant any crop except cassava until there is adequate moisture.
According to the Agro Meteorological Bulletin released by the Zambia Meteorological Department under the Ministry of Green Economy and Environment, surveillance of pests and disease outbreaks, especially the fall armyworms, will be enhanced.
The bulletin indicated that the rain season has not yet set over much of the eastern half of Zambia and farmers were advised to consider planting early to medium maturing varieties.
Ruth Hensen, a Livingstone–based farmer, described the continued dry spell as worrisome.
Ms Hensen, who is former chairperson of the Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU) Livingstone and Kazungula District Farmers Association (DFA), is of the view that farmers who already planted their crops in the current farming season might be required to replant.
Speaking in an interview, Ms Hensen expressed sadness that the delay in the rainfall is not part of the seasonal forecast.
“We hope that the rest of the season will progress normally as the forecast had indicated. Famers would be well advised in this situation and always be organic as natural systems are more resilient and more drought resistant,” she said.
Ms Hensen said it is also wise to have a diversity of crops to enable farmers pull through if the drought continued.
“Diversifying into livestock also helps farmers have some backup in the case of poor crop performance,” she said.
Edify Hamukale, an agricultural expert, said it is too early for him to make a conclusive analysis on the likely impact of the dry spell on Zambia’s food security situation.
Dr Hamukale, who is former Southern Province minister, said in an interview that Zambians must first appreciate the country’s ecological landscape before making any suggestions or recommendations.
“My answer to your questions on the likely impact of the current dry spell can be broken into three, because Zambia has three ecological regions namely high rainfall areas, medium rainfall area and low rainfall area,” he said.
Dr Hamukale recommended that farmers in region one, which is a low rainfall area covering Southern, Western, parts of Lusaka and Eastern provinces, should engage in conservation farming.
He said the farming community in the low rainfall region must consider digging permanent holes to conserve moisture.
Secondly, Dr Hamukale is of the view that farmers in the said region must plant early maturing maize varieties currently in the short term.
He said the farmers should not just plant maize but also diversify into other sources of carbohydrates, like sorghum, millet, cassava and sweet potatoes, among others.
“In the long term, farmers in region one need to invest in a lot of boreholes so that they begin to use underground water as opposed to waiting for rainwater. This can assist to supplement rain water,” he said.
Dr Hamukale said farmers could also invest in water abstraction equipment, conveyors (pipes) and application tools such as sprinklers.
“We need solar pumps to drive these technologies. Solar panels can assist to extract water from underground. This can assure food security in low rainfall areas,” he said.
The agricultural expert said in addition, animals also suffer when there is drought.
He urged the farmers to work closely with officers from the departments of agriculture and forestry to mitigate these challenges, including in the area of controlling pests.
In region one, agricultural experts operate around 70 per cent probability that it will rain, so it is important to implement appropriate measures.
“You can’t talk of venturing into vegetable production in region one because maize is a staple food,” Dr Hamukale said.
In region two, which covers most parts of Lusaka as well as Central and Eastern provinces, Dr Hamukale said the farmers in the said areas need to plant medium maturing maize varieties.
The region, which is also commonly known as midlands, operates around 75 to 80 per cent probability that it will rain.
Dr Hamukale said farmers have plenty of surface water in the midlands area and so they should consider investing in water abstraction equipment in order to use water on the surface.
“Farmers in region two can also put up canals and dams since they have water in rivers. A classic example of this scenario is Nakambala Sugar Estate in Mazabuka district in Southern Province. Some parts of Southern Province are actually in region two,” he said.
According to Dr Hamukale, solar energy cannot work well in region two so the farmers need communal dams to provide water to both animals and humans.
Farmers in region two may also plant other crops like vegetables, fruits and invest in diary to boost their income levels.
For region three which covers Muchinga, Northern, Luapula, Copperbelt and North Western, Dr Hamukale said the farmers have limitless opportunities in this high rainfall area.
The region has a rainfall probability of more than 90 per cent, even when other regions experience drought.
“I can assure you, it will soon rain in region three even if there is no rain in regions one and two. In this region, farmers can even conduct dry planting now because rainfall will surely come soon,” he said.
Dr Hamukale said the farmers in region three need more of medium maturity maize varieties since they have limitless opportunities.
He said the farmers in region three have more water and should not use conservation farming.
“In dry planting, I recommend they use round seeds whether large and medium size,” he said.
Dr Hamukale observed that increasing indiscriminate cutting of trees mainly for the purposes of making charcoal is affecting the water circle in the country.
He said trees are important in adding water to the atmosphere as well as in managing the wind movement.
“If we continue cutting more trees without replenishing the forests, it will only rain in areas where there are trees. We need to safeguard the forests by planting more trees,” Dr Hamukale said.
He said ecological problems do not know boundaries and as a result, the country may be suffering from the challenges of other countries with deserts.
Dr Hamukale is positive of the future of Zambia’s agricultural sector provided that citizens adapt to climate change.
He also suggested that Zambia must invest in modern meteorological equipment in order to predict weather accurately.
Dr Hamukale said the Zambia Meteorological Department was initially set up for aviation purposes and not to provide information to farmers.
Technology and Science Minister Felix Mutati said the New Dawn Government would in the next two years launch a satellite that would give accurate data with regards to weather and climate change.
Mr Mutati was quoted on the local QFM Radio where he recently said the satellite would be both commercial and for data generation for planning purposes and timely information to tackle all the issues of climate change.
The minister said the issues of climate change are extremely important and that part of the journey of tackling climate change is investing in science and technology.
Information and Media Minister Chushi Kasanda said the Government is hopeful that the rain pattern would soon stabilise to enable the farmers to plant their crops.
In her recent post on her Facebook page, Ms Kasanda said the Government has this year rolled out farming inputs to more than one million farmers countrywide under the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP).
‘Each beneficiary is receiving six bags of 50kg fertilizer and one bag of 10kg maize seed. This measure represents Government commitment to ensuring household and national food security,’ she wrote in the Facebook post.
Despite the current adverse climatic conditions in the country, Ms Kasanda said the Government envisages a good harvest, which will stabilise food prices.
“Government, therefore, calls on stakeholders to avoid making statements that have potential to cause panic regarding the food situation next year. Trust your Government and it’s leadership,” she said.
By and large, not all hope has been lost from the current dry spell being experienced in various parts of Zambia.